Tuesday, August 17, 2010

What happened to the best tourism season ever?

What happened to the best Lebanon Vacations season ever?

Lebanese hopes for tourism bounty dented
By Abigail Fielding-Smith 
Financial Times

Published: August 16 2010 17:41

This year’s tourist season in Lebanon has been even more hyped than most. Fadi Abboud, the tourism minister, predicted a 20 per cent increase on last year’s nearly 2m visitors, and pitched this summer as “probably the best in our history”.

True, hotel occupancy rates were up more than 20 per cent in the first six months of this year. Yet anecdotal evidence suggests the summer season – when the bulk of tourism revenue, which is an estimated 25 per cent of Lebanon’s gross domestic product, is generated – may prove disappointing.

Nizar Alouf, a board member of the Hotel Owners Association, says summer bookings have risen only 5-7 per cent, compared to the predicted 15 per cent.

“We have mixed signals, strong in the first half and feeble in the second,” says Elie Namoor from travel agency Rida International. “The number of rooms booked is almost the same [as last year], but this in itself is somehow disappointing as there are more additional incoming flights from Europe and from Arab countries.”

“So many things interfered,” says Mr Alouf. He cites the football World Cup, the fact that Ramadan falls mostly during August this year, and the political situation.

The rhetoric from both Israel and Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant group, has grown increasingly bellicose in recent months, and a deadly exchange of fire between Lebanese and Israeli soldiers at the border this month has raised fears.

Internal tensions have also increased as Hizbollah fears a United Nations tribunal may accuse it of assassinating Rafik Hariri, a former prime minister.

“Definitely everyone in the Arab world is listening to every single bit of speech by our politicians,” says Mr Alouf.

The border incident does not appear to have provoked mass cancellations, but all eyes are on Eid al-Fitr, the holiday after Ramadan when Lebanon hopes to recoup revenue from Arab tourists who stayed at home for the month of fasting. Bookings are said to be high but, says Ms Namoor, “it is highly likely that [the political situation] might trigger a negative effect”.

There are other checks on the promised boom that are unrelated to politics.

According to one hotel manager in Bhamdoun, a mountain resort, the main thing deterring visitors is the traffic. Lebanon’s roads are in critical need of development and are increasingly unable to cope with the summer influxes. “The journey from Bhamdoum to Jounieh [a coastal resort] should take 20 minutes, but it takes three hours,” the manager says.

Value for money is another issue. Jad Chaaban, president of the Lebanon Economic Association, says the country has pursued a niche tourism strategy, focused on attracting a relatively small number of visitors, mainly from the Gulf states, who are willing to pay high prices.

This does not mean, however, that they are insensitive to value. The costs of accommodation, food and transport in resort areas are high even for better-off visitors. For example, a standard double room for the Eid holiday in the Four Seasons hotel in downtown Beirut costs $350 a night, excluding taxes and breakfast.

The average Beirut hotel room rate has increased by nearly 16 per cent since last year, more than anywhere else in the region, says Byblos Bank.

“I hear people saying they regret coming here,” says the Bhamdoun hotel manager, whose guests are mainly from the Gulf. “The Lebanese people are trying to steal from them. If I were a Kuwaiti or from the UAE, I would go to Syria or Jordan.”

For Ms Namoor, price inflation partly explains the poor bookings for the second half of the year. “My impression is that the chain of supply readied itself for a record summer by increasing the costs, without perfecting the equation of quality to cost,” she says.

The number of non-Arab visitors is reported by the industry to be growing. However, to turn Beirut into a popular destination for European tourists would require the availability of cheap package deals; at present, these account for a tiny proportion of tourists. Mr Abboud says he is keen to develop such products, but there are significant impediments.

Jean Beyrouthy, head of the Federation of Touristic Syndicates, says that the political situation needs “four to five years to stabilise” before advance block-booking and charter flights become commercially viable, and there would have to be more investment in building hotels and resorts outside Beirut.

As the mixture of languages being spoken on Beirut streets indicate, 2010 is far from a disaster. But there is a sense of missed opportunities.

The sporadic outbursts of tension, congested roads and lack of a co-ordinated development strategy look set to continue. “We are losing things because of the lack of unified vision of where we want the country to go,” says Mr Chaaban.

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